Commentary

This will be brief as we all know what has happened and have no idea where we are headed. Are we in the early phase of this viral event or is a return to normalcy on the horizon? The equity markets crashed into the March 23rd lows – down 35% in five weeks. They subsequently […]

So where are we in the midst of this ongoing equity market melt up? The Federal Reserve (Jerome Powell) continues to flood the banking system with liquidity causing risk assets (stocks, bonds, derivatives, etc.) to inflate relentlessly. Get this: The current thinking is that the Fed may cut interest rates again several times this year. […]

Despite the SP500 index being marginally positive for the first half of the year the economy continues to surge ahead. Jobs are going unfilled and homes are in short supply.s passed at the end of 2017. The economy has been overly stimulated by the tax cuts and fiscal-spending package that Congress passed at the end […]

The markets peaked on January 26th and volatility is back with a vengeance and that creates opportunity. Three of the Dow’s biggest daily point drops in its 122-year history, including its 1,175-point record fall on February 5th, have occurred this year. And it was a wild ride Friday April 6th when it plunged 767 points […]

A lot has happened since our last letter. Last September J.P. Morgan’s CEO said that Bitcoin was a “fraud”. Last week he said he “regrets calling Bitcoin a fraud” after the digital currency tripled in price in three months. The next day Warren Buffett said in an interview regarding crypto currencies, “I can say with […]

You can’t see it or touch it but it’s there. It’s a digital currency, owned by a few and not controlled by any government or central bank. The best-known and largest crypto currency is Bitcoin. It was created in 2009 by a man named Satoshi Nakamoto. It originally had a value of around one tenth […]

Too much liquidity, too much technology, too much complacency. Barron’s had a fascinating article this week regarding passive index/ETF investing. It’s simple. Give your money to the fund manager, pay a small fee and forget about it. The computer does the rest while you play golf or sail around on your yacht. No problem. Stocks […]

The Swamp, as you know, is a metaphor for all that is wrong with the incompetence that Washington politicians continue to offer us year in and year out. The President says he wants to drain the Swamp while some say the Swamp is draining the President. I suspect most Americans are exhausted with Swamp fatigue, […]

Stocks took a huge dive last January bottoming out on February 11th, down about 11.5% for the first six weeks of 2016. Predictions were that Fed Chair Yellen was going to raise interest rates many times. That never happened. On January 12th, U.S. oil broke below $30 per barrel, down from $107 just 18 months […]

November 8th was what is known as a “Black Swan” event. A completely unexpected five standard deviation event. We live in a world bombarded minute by minute with analysis of events by experts. Highly paid, over educated, elite experts. Great job experts! Now go look for another line of work. We have been getting more […]