Commentary

Despite the SP500 index being marginally positive for the first half of the year the economy continues to surge ahead. Jobs are going unfilled and homes are in short supply.s passed at the end of 2017. The economy has been overly stimulated by the tax cuts and fiscal-spending package that Congress passed at the end […]

The markets peaked on January 26th and volatility is back with a vengeance and that creates opportunity. Three of the Dow’s biggest daily point drops in its 122-year history, including its 1,175-point record fall on February 5th, have occurred this year. And it was a wild ride Friday April 6th when it plunged 767 points […]

A lot has happened since our last letter. Last September J.P. Morgan’s CEO said that Bitcoin was a “fraud”. Last week he said he “regrets calling Bitcoin a fraud” after the digital currency tripled in price in three months. The next day Warren Buffett said in an interview regarding crypto currencies, “I can say with […]

You can’t see it or touch it but it’s there. It’s a digital currency, owned by a few and not controlled by any government or central bank. The best-known and largest crypto currency is Bitcoin. It was created in 2009 by a man named Satoshi Nakamoto. It originally had a value of around one tenth […]

Too much liquidity, too much technology, too much complacency. Barron’s had a fascinating article this week regarding passive index/ETF investing. It’s simple. Give your money to the fund manager, pay a small fee and forget about it. The computer does the rest while you play golf or sail around on your yacht. No problem. Stocks […]

The Swamp, as you know, is a metaphor for all that is wrong with the incompetence that Washington politicians continue to offer us year in and year out. The President says he wants to drain the Swamp while some say the Swamp is draining the President. I suspect most Americans are exhausted with Swamp fatigue, […]

Stocks took a huge dive last January bottoming out on February 11th, down about 11.5% for the first six weeks of 2016. Predictions were that Fed Chair Yellen was going to raise interest rates many times. That never happened. On January 12th, U.S. oil broke below $30 per barrel, down from $107 just 18 months […]

November 8th was what is known as a “Black Swan” event. A completely unexpected five standard deviation event. We live in a world bombarded minute by minute with analysis of events by experts. Highly paid, over educated, elite experts. Great job experts! Now go look for another line of work. We have been getting more […]

Gold had its best first quarter in years, up $174 an ounce or roughly 16%! The S&P 500 declined 11% in the first few days of January in what was the worst start for any year ever. It recovered by the end of the quarter to a little better than breakeven year to date. We […]

I am not commenting on what was in Humphrey Bogart’s saddle pack in the 1948 production of “The Treasure of the Sierra Madre”. The asset categories in the title are some of the best performing stock groups so far this year. We do own gold but have held off on guns, tobacco and whiskey. And […]